New light commercial vehicle registrations fell by 7.8% in January, with 17,562 vans, pickups and 4x4s registered in the UK, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and TradersExternal link image (SMMT).

It’s the weakest January for the LCV market since 2012, making for a subdued start to the year as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on business investment decisions.

Pickup demand collapses

The overall decline was driven primarily by a sharp fall in pickup registrations, which dropped by 57.0% year-on-year to just 1,206 units. The slump follows changes to government tax policy that reclassify most double-cab pickups as cars for benefit-in-kind and capital allowance purposes — a move the industry had repeatedly warned would suppress demand.

Other segments also contracted. Registrations of medium vans fell by 27.4% to 2,547 units, while small vans declined by 39.8% to 402 units. By contrast, large vans between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes grew by 10.0% to 12,696 units, underlining their continued importance as the backbone of fleet operations. 4×4 registrations also rose, up 33.9% to 711 units, boosted by a large number of Land Rover Defender Hard Top deliveries.

The National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) said the pickup decline had been expected following strong pull-forward demand in early 2025 ahead of the tax changes. It also pointed to growth in the large van segment as a potential sign of underlying confidence among fleet buyers.

Electric van uptake rises

Battery electric van registrations increased in January, rising by 26.0% to 1,844 units when including BEV rigids. That equates to a market share of 10.4%, up year-on-year but still a long way short of the 24% target mandated for 2026.

Electric van sales rose in January

Despite more than half of all van models now being available with electric powertrains — and widespread discounting — the SMMT warned that demand would need to more than double to meet next year’s target.

Diesel vans continued to dominate the market, accounting for 81.5% of registrations under 3.5 tonnes.

Outlook revised downwards

The SMMT has revised its full-year outlook for 2026 downward, now forecasting 321,000 LCV registrations, which is a 1.9% increase on 2025 but well below the 335,000 units previously expected.

While electric van volumes are still forecast to grow by more than 50% this year, the projected market share has been trimmed to 13.1%, down from the 14.0% anticipated in the previous outlook.

Industry bodies continue to call for greater policy clarity and support. While the extension of the Plug-in Van Grant to 2027 was welcomed, uncertainty remains over funding beyond April, alongside ongoing concerns around energy costs, limited van-suitable public charging, and lengthy grid connection delays for depot charging.

Commenting on the figures, SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said the January data “reflects ongoing economic and fiscal conditions which are limiting demand, particularly for pickups, as industry had warned”, adding that delivering the UK’s EV ambitions would require extra support. “With an even steeper 2026 target that is further still from real-world demand, government’s review of the transition must come urgently, recognising additional action is needed to deliver on ambition,” added Hawes.

NFDA chief executive Sue Robinson echoed those concerns, pointing out that “while registrations are increasing, they remain a long way below last year’s ZEV mandate target of 16%. With the target rising to 24% from January, current demand does not indicate this is likely to be achieved without further market stimulation and greater confidence among van users that operating electric commercials is viable for their business.”

Phil Huff
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